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Australia’s migrant intake is set to surpass 400,000 for the last financial year, a significant deviation from the federal government’s target. This surge has sparked criticism from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who has accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of failing to manage the population increase amidst a housing crisis.
Recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a net increase of 388,000 overseas migrants in the first nine months of 2023-24, falling just 7,000 short of the government’s annual forecast of 395,000. This overshoot ensures that the Albanese administration will miss its migration target, which was already revised up from earlier projections of 315,000 in May’s budget and 375,000 in December’s update, despite a recent slowdown in population growth.
The Coalition has seized on the data to bolster their election campaign, with Dutton linking the increased migration numbers to rising living costs and housing shortages. “This surge in migration is why Australians are struggling to afford homes, why rents are soaring, and why many people face insecure living conditions,” Dutton stated.
In response, Workplace Minister Murray Watt highlighted that migration rates have been slowing and will continue to do so due to new immigration policies. “We’re implementing measures to ensure that our migration numbers are sustainable, and we’re starting to see the effects of these actions,” Watt said, noting that the latest figures are somewhat outdated and that further reductions are expected as new measures take effect.
The government has pledged to cut migration by half over the next two years, aiming to reduce it from a record high of 528,000 in 2022-23 to 260,000 by 2024-25. The Coalition has promised to lower it further to 160,000, despite concerns about potential worker shortages.
Recent data indicates that 133,800 overseas migrants arrived in the March 2024 quarter, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous year. Although the rolling 12-month total of 509,750 migrants shows a downward trend, the reduction is not as rapid as anticipated. Former immigration official Abul Rizvi pointed out that a significant influx of international students and changes in visa statuses contributed to the higher numbers.
The Centre for Population noted that while migration remains high, departures are relatively low, partly due to many temporary migrants extending their stays. A government spokesperson said that recent migration figures do not yet reflect recent policy changes, such as increased international student visa fees and stricter English language requirements.
Opposition leaders have criticized the government’s performance, pointing to past assurances from then-Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil and Prime Minister Albanese about meeting revised forecasts. With the Australian population surpassing 27 million, the rate of growth is slowing, reflecting the decrease in migration and ongoing demographic challenges.
KPMG’s Terry Rawnsley predicts that population growth will continue to decline as migration eases and birth rates remain low. Victoria and New South Wales lead in population growth, while overall national growth has moderated from a peak of 2.6% to 2.3% in the past year.
In conclusion, Australia's migrant intake significantly exceeding forecasts has intensified scrutiny on the federal government’s ability to manage population growth and address associated challenges. Despite efforts to curb the numbers and the anticipated implementation of new policies, the Albanese administration is set to fall short of its revised migration targets. This discrepancy has fueled criticism from the Opposition, highlighting broader issues related to housing affordability and living costs. As the country grapples with these challenges, including slowing population growth and high migration rates, the government’s ability to balance immigration policies with sustainable development will be crucial in shaping Australia’s future demographic and economic landscape.